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With One Week To Go, The Presidential Race Tightens But Clinton Still Has The Advantage

Trump Clinton

Well, here we are folks. A Presidential race that began way back in November 2014 when former Virginia Senator Jim Webb announced the formation of a Presidential Exploratory Committee, thus becoming the first prominent politician to announce their intentions regarding the 2016 election, we’ve come to the final week of the campaign to determine who will become the nation’s 45th President, Given the fact that this has been one of the most bizarre, unique affairs in recent history, it’s perhaps not a surprise that this final week looks like it’s going to be marked by what’s likely to be virtual non-stop obsession in the media over what’s going on inside one of the Federal Government’s more secretive organizations, the Federal Bureau of Investigations. The letter released late Friday by F.B.I. Director James Comey that the bureau was examining a set of emails that apparently were discovered during an investigation of former Congressman Anthony Weiner, who is accused of inappropriate conduct of a sexual nature with a minor, has dominated the headlines for three days now and seems likely to do so for a good part of this week. While it’s still unclear that these emails have anything to do with Hillary Clinton or Weiner’s estranged wife, and top Clinton aide, Huma Abedin, the story has nonetheless become part of the campaign and threatens to drown out the closing messages of both campaigns as the week goes on. The question overriding all of this, of course, is whether the story will have the kind of impact that would really impact Clinton to the point where the election outcome, which has been seemingly apparent for weeks, could be thrown into doubt. If early polling is any indication, the answer to that question is no, but with six days of campaigning it’s anyone’s guess as to what impact all of this will have.

Looking at the race from the national level, it’s clear that the race is tightening again but it’s unclear whether that’s part of the natural tightening we’ve seen in past elections or whether it’s something more being propelled by the news about the latest twist in the Clinton email story. Turning first to the RealClearPolitics national averages, we see that tightening that seemed to start two weeks ago has continued. In a two-way matchup, Clinton now leads Trump 47.5% to 45.3% for an average lead of 2.2 points. This is a drop from last week when she led by 5.1 points and the week before when her lead was at  7.1 points, In a four-way match, Clinton stands at 45.3% to 43.2% with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson averaging 4.6% and Green Party nominee Jill Stein averaging 2.1%, giving Clinton an average 2.2 point lead over Trump. This is down from an average lead of 5.4 points last week and 6.0 points the week before. Pollster also shows tightening in both a two-way and a three-way race, but not to the same extent as the RCP averages.  In the RealClearPolitics polling average of the Favorable/Unfavorable question for both candidates, where we might expect to see some evidence that the email story is having an impact, both candidates continue to be viewed unfavorably but Clinton remains in a far better position than Trump, For Clinton an average of 53. 4% of respondents saying they have an unfavorable opinion of her versus 44 .1% who say they have a favorable opinion. This leaves her with an average deficit of -9.3 points, which is actually an improvement over where she was at this point last week and suggest that, at least immediately, the email story may not be having the impact some might think. This compares quite favorably to Donald Trump who stands at 59.0% unfavorable and 38.0% favorable and an average deficit of -21,0 points, which is also a slight statistical improvement for Trump. In both cases, this may be attributable to the fact that people who have made up their mind about one candidate or the other have become more favorable toward that choice.

The tightening of the race can be seen easily in this chart for the two-way race:

RCP Two Way Chart 1111 6

And, to some extent, in the four-way chart:

RCP Four Way Chart 1111 6

To look at the numbers and the charts, one might think that Clinton has something serious to worry about, and it may turn out as the days go on this week that we’ll discover that she does, but, as I noted yesterday, it’s also possible we’re just seeing this year’s version of end-of-race tightening. Four years ago, the last week or so of polling indicated tightening between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney at almost precisely this same time four years ago and yet when all was said and done. Similarly, the polling in 2004 showed John Kerry closing the gap with President George W. Bush to within 1.5 points. In both of those cases, the candidate leading heading into the last week of the race (Bush and Obama respectively) ended up winning the election. So, it’s possible we’re seeing similar tightening here but that it won’t be enough to derail Clinton’s campaign at the last minute. The only way to know for sure will be to keep an eye on the direction of the race, and I’m sure there will be plenty of polling data to help with that task.

For all the tightening in the national polls, Hillary Clinton’s position looks far better when you look at it from the position of the Electoral College, where so far at least there have been only small changes between the candidates. The RCP Electoral Map currently gives Clinton 263 Electoral Votes, just seven fewer than needed to win, to 164 Electoral Votes for Trump and 111 Electoral Votes from seven states and one Congressional District in Maine listed as toss-ups. This is a slight loss for Clinton, and a somewhat larger gain for Trump, over last week due to shifts of a handful of states from the toss-up column to the column of one candidate or the other, but the advantage obviously still lies with Clinton since she has more apparent paths to victory than Trump does. Without toss-ups, Clinton has 304 Electoral Votes to 234 for Donald Trump. This is a slight loss for Clinton due to the fact that both Ohio and Florida have moved to slightly favor Trump at this point in the race, one of several times that one or both of these states has moved between the candidates. The most significant thing about this, of course, is that Clinton still has the possibility of a significant Electoral College win even if she loses both of those states, whereas Trump most likely cannot win without winning both states.

In the projections, Clinton’s turnaround continues to be reflected there as well. Nate Silver’s polls-only forecast, for example, projects a 73.8% likelihood of a Clinton victory and a 26.2% chance of a Republican victory while the ‘Polls-Plus’ forecast gives Clinton an 72.1% chance of winning versus 27.9% for Donald Trump and the “Now-cast,” which purports to project would happen if the election were held today, showing a 72.7% chance of a Clinton victory and a 27.2% chance of a Trump victory. (Keep in mind that 538’s forecast numbers can change throughout a given day as they factor newly published polls into their forecast model, these numbers represent what was displayed at the time the post was written.) These are all slips for Clinton over last week, which isn’t surprising given the extent to which the race has tightened in the polls. As was the case last week, Clinton fares slightly better in Sam Wang’s forecast and in Larry Sabato’s forecastThe New York Timesmeanwhile, gives Clinton an 88% chance of winning the race while DailyKos gives Clinton a 96% chance of winning. These are largely consistent with Clinton’s position last week.

Over the next week, every poll that comes out will be scrutinized closely, and it will be easy for someone watching the coverage to get confused as we go from one “Breaking News” poll to another and it seems like one candidate is leading one day and another is leading on another. Rather than paying attention to each of those polls as if they were definitive, though, it’s best to watch the national and state averages to see where the trends may be heading. For example, while it may look from the data as though Trump is closing or possibly even taking a lead, the state polls remind us where the numbers really matter and that we’re still at the point where Clinton seems to be far better situated for a win than Trump does. By the time we get to the weekend, we should have a much better idea where things stand, but right now I don’t see any reason to change my expectation that Clinton will ultimately be victorious, even if it is by a smaller margin than might have been thought when this process started.

Previous Posts:

With Eleven Weeks To Go, Hillary Clinton Appears To Be Unstoppable
Ten Weeks Out: The Presidential Race Tightens A Bit, But Clinton Still Lead
With Nine Weeks To Go, Clinton’s Post-Convention Bounce Seems To Have Disappeared
With Eight Weeks To Go, A Tighter Race But It’s Still Advantage Clinton
Presidential Race Continues To Tighten With Seven Weeks To Go
Presidential Race Remains Tight Heading Into First Debate
With Five Weeks To Go, Clinton Appears To Have Momentum
Clinton Keeps Pulling Ahead Heading Into Second Presidential Debate
With Three Weeks To Go, Clinton’s Momentum Appears To Be Surging
It’s Two Weeks Until Election Day, And Things Are Looking Very Good For Hillary Clinton

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. CSK says:

    If Clinton is worried, and she probably shouldn’t be, all her campaign has to do is point out that President Trump would be our very first chief exec to go on trial for racketeering on November 28 and child rape on December 16 immediately following the election.

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  2. barbintheboonies says:

    Look what money gave us, and we will go back to our lives, as one of these people becomes POTUS. How in the Hell did it get like this. I will be glad that all of the effing commercials will finally be gone. Just a little bright side.

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  3. reid says:

    @CSK: One would think that would have an effect, but then again, plenty of evidence has been revealed to this point already that he’s a conman, bigot, ignorant boob, etc., and he’s still in the running. It’s sad. The only way he can even compete is by completely filling the dialog with sewage.

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  4. CSK says:

    @reid:

    You have to bear in mind that every negative about Trump is regarded as a feature, not a bug, by the Trumpkins, They’re lost; they wouldn’t be the target audience for this. The waverers–if there are any at this point–might be dissuaded from a vote for Trump by an emphasis on the fact that Trump is an alleged child rapist and racketeer.

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  5. DrDaveT says:

    While it’s still unclear that these emails have anything to do with Hillary Clinton

    It’s astonishing how few of the major media seem to realize this.

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  6. Liberal Capitalist says:

    Slate magazine has a great bit of fun with this:

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/10/clinton_vs_trump_whose_crimes_are_worse.html

    For purposes of comparison, we present these complete accountings of the candidates’ offenses and misdemeanors. Weigh them according to your personal moral compass, then print them out and take them to the polls to help you decide. Good luck.

    .

    Hillary Clinton (D)

    1. Poor email server management

    .

    Donald J. Trump (R)

    1. Said he would force the military to commit war crimes

    2. Said about women, “You have to treat ’em like shit”

    3. Proposed to create a database system to track Muslims in the U.S.

    4. Said a U.S.-born judge couldn’t be impartial because of his “Mexican heritage”

    5. Advocated assassinating terrorists’ families

    6. Advocated waterboarding as punishment even if it doesn’t help gain information, because “they deserve it anyway”

    7. Said women should be punished for having abortions

    8. Urged supporters to beat up protesters at his rallies

    9. Made fun of a reporter’s physical disability

    10. Promised to deport U.S. citizens whose parents immigrated illegally, in violation of the 14th Amendment

    11. Advocated shutting down mosques

    12. Called for a ban on Muslims entering the U.S.

    13. Described global warming as a hoax perpetrated by “the Chinese” for competitive reasons

    14. Suggested the U.S. should reduce its debts by partially defaulting on them

    15. Responded to the murder of 49 people at Orlando’s Pulse nightclub with “Appreciate the congrats for being right on Islamic terrorism”

    16. Fraternizes with avowed white supremacists on Twitter

    17. Called Mexican immigrants rapists

    18. Endorsed torture

    19. Refuses to sell any of his more than 500 businesses if he’s elected, potentially creating unprecedented conflicts of interest

    20. Disparaged Sen. John McCain’s military service because he was captured by the North Vietnamese

    21. Defended FDR’s internment of Japanese Americans

    22. Refused to release his tax returns during the campaign

    23. Retweeted bogus crime statistics that wildly inflated the rate at which blacks kill whites

    24. Suggested that supporters who attacked a homeless Hispanic man were “very passionate” and “love their country”

    25. Blamed sexual assault in the military on “put[ting] men and women together”

    26. Referred to Tiananmen Square demonstrations as a riot and said the Chinese government’s response “shows you the power of strength”

    27. Repeatedly suggested that President Obama might be a Muslim

    28. Claimed he saw thousands of Muslims in New Jersey celebrating the 9/11 attacks

    29. Doesn’t know how many articles are in the Constitution

    30. Called an attorney who requested a break to pump breast milk “disgusting”

    31. Doesn’t pay his bills

    32. Proposed to change libel laws to make it easier to sue media organizations

    33. Barred reporters from campaign events for unfavorable coverage

    34. Praised North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un

    35. Described Fox debate moderator Megyn Kelly as having “blood coming out of her wherever”

    36. Questioned President Obama’s American citizenship, bringing the “birther” campaign into the mainstream

    37. Said, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose voters”

    38. Named and threatened former students who criticized Trump University

    39. Didn’t immediately disavow an endorsement from KKK leader David Duke

    40. Bragged about the size of his penis during a primary debate

    41. Claimed he’s donated $1 million to veterans’ groups, although none received any money until reporters began investigating

    42. Didn’t know the meaning of the term “Brexit” less than a month before the U.K. referendum on leaving the EU

    43. Posted a link to Facebook promoting the conspiracy theory that the Obama administration actively supported al-Qaida in Iraq

    44. Called Elizabeth Warren “the Indian” and “Pocahontas”

    45. Founded Trump University, which a salesman called “a fraudulent scheme [that] preyed upon the elderly and uneducated”

    46. Advocated plundering oil from Iraq, Libya, and other oil-rich countries invaded by the U.S., in violation of the Geneva Conventions

    47. Said, “It doesn’t really matter what [the media] write as long as you’ve got a young and beautiful piece of ass”

    48. Named himself as his primary consultant on foreign policy

    49. Refused to take care of his children, saying that husbands who change diapers are “acting like the wife”

    50. Refused to rule out using nuclear weapons against ISIS

    51. Claimed he’s donated $102 million to charity, although journalists have been unable to find evidence of any substantial donations

    52. Said of Carly Fiorina, “Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of our next president?”

    53. Approvingly repeated a tall tale about a U.S. commander ordering the execution of Muslim insurgents with bullets dipped in pig’s blood

    54. Refused to condemn anti-Semitic attacks on journalists

    55. Paid campaign money to family members and his own businesses

    56. Advocated withholding free public education from insufficiently studious kids

    57. Suggested that he might refuse to serve as president if elected

    58. Told a female contestant on Celebrity Apprentice, “That must be a pretty picture, you dropping to your knees”

    59. Proposed to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants

    60. Speculated about his 1-year-old daughter’s future breasts

    61. Said, “If Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her”

    62. Has repeatedly done business with figures linked to organized crime

    63. Hired a suspicious number of advisers who have done work on behalf of Vladimir Putin

    64. Claimed that American Muslims knew about the Orlando nightclub shooter and San Bernardino terrorists before the attacks

    65. Didn’t understand the phrase “nuclear triad” during a primary debate

    66. Pointed out a black supporter and said, “Oh, look at my African American over here”

    67. Kept a collection of Adolf Hitler’s collected speeches in a cabinet by his bed

    68. Said that “maybe” his employees should feel they have to return quickly from maternity leave or risk being replaced

    69. Suggested the U.S. won’t come to NATO allies’ military aid

    70. Proposed to compel Mexico to pay for a border wall

    71. Praised Saddam Hussein for being good at killing terrorists

    72. Threatened Amazon as payback for negative coverage in the Washington Post

    73. Called for the death penalty for the Central Park Five, five teenagers later exonerated of rape and assault

    74. Praised the U.K.’s vote to leave the EU because a falling pound would be good for his Scottish golf course

    75. Suggested that Sen. Ted Cruz’s father was involved in the assassination of President John F. Kennedy

    76. Tweeted an image that originated on a white-supremacist account containing a star of David over a background of money

    77. Read out Sen. Lindsey Graham’s personal phone number in a campaign speech

    78. Subjected his then-wife Ivana to what she described in a deposition as rape, although she later said she didn’t mean the word literally

    79. Quoted in a 1991 book as telling a colleague that “laziness is a trait in blacks”

    80. Said that the U.S. military should withdraw from Japan and South Korea and allow those countries to defend themselves with nuclear weapons

    81. Called for the construction of a wall across the U.S.-Mexico border to prevent immigration

    82. Tweeted: “Our great African American President hasn’t exactly had a positive impact on the thugs who are so happily and openly destroying Baltimore!”

    83. Has been a plaintiff in at least 1,900 lawsuits and a defendant in 1,450 more

    84. Suggested that Bill and Hillary Clinton conspired to murder aide Vince Foster

    85. Believes the world would be “100 percent” better if Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi were still in power

    86. Directed a female employee not to take lunch orders when visitors came to Trump Tower because he found her insufficiently attractive

    87. Reportedly asked national security advisers why the U.S. can’t use nuclear weapons

    88. Told his security team to confiscate protesters’ coats and “throw them out into the cold”

    89. Publicly shamed a Miss Universe winner for gaining weight

    90. Repeatedly claimed, falsely, to have opposed the Iraq war

    91. Included the head of the white nationalist American Freedom Party on a list of California delegates

    92. Sold Trump University and Trump Institute courses that relied on plagiarized materials

    93. Earned millions from failing casinos by shifting the debt burden to investors

    94. Filed for corporate bankruptcy four times

    95. Compared his “sacrifices” as a businessman with those of parents whose son was killed in war

    96. Claimed there’s “no real assimilation” of “second- and third-generation” families from the Middle East

    97. Tried to set up an investment partnership with Muammar Qaddafi

    98. Argued that the massacre at Orlando’s Pulse nightclub could have been prevented if patrons had been armed

    99. Claimed, falsely, that President Obama “issued a statement for Kwanzaa but failed to issue one for Christmas”

    100. Wished for a housing-market crash

    101. Took out advertisements alleging that the “Mohawk Indian record of criminal activity is well documented” to fight competition for his casino business

    102. Has insulted 239 candidates, journalists, organizations, countries, sitting politicians, and celebrities on Twitter

    103. Used contributions to the Trump Foundation to buy a helmet and jersey signed by Tim Tebow for $12,000 at a charity auction

    104. Said, “Refugees are trying to take over our children” by telling them “how wonderful Islam is”

    105. Called the decision to put Harriet Tubman on the $20 bill “pure political correctness”

    106. Said that Black Lives Matter activists are “looking for trouble”

    107. Called Rosie O’Donnell a “big, fat pig”

    108. Proposed a 35 percent tax on Mexican-made cars and trucks, in violation of NAFTA

    109. Greeted a Miss Universe contestant with a kiss on the lips, which she called “gross” and “inappropriate”

    110. Proposed to abolish gun-free zones

    111. Falsely claimed there have been calls for a moment of silence for Dallas shooter Micah Johnson

    112. Defended then–campaign manager Corey Lewandowski after he physically grabbed a female reporter

    113. Falsely claimed that Ferguson, Missouri, and Oakland, California, were “among the most dangerous [places] in the world”

    114. Proposed to have China assassinate Kim Jong-un

    115. Claimed that “the birther movement was started by Hillary Clinton in 2008”

    116. Threatened to “spill the beans” about an unspecified scandal concerning Ted Cruz’s wife, Heidi

    117. Attempted to court Jewish voters with anti-Semitic stereotypes about money, influence, and dealmaking

    118. Pre-emptively questioned the legitimacy of the election

    119. Attempted to seize and bulldoze the home of an Atlantic City, New Jersey, widow under eminent domain

    120. Said that Hillary Clinton “got schlonged” by Obama in 2008

    121. Tweeted “The best taco bowls are made in Trump Tower Grill. I love Hispanics!”

    122. Claimed a federal spending bill “funds ISIS”

    123. Pretended to be his own publicist

    124. Proposed to appoint himself U.S. trade representative

    125. Accused Hillary Clinton of “playing the woman card”

    126. Called Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine “so smart”

    127. Believes that he would “get along very well” with Vladimir Putin

    128. Included two anti-Sharia cranks on a list of five foreign-policy advisers

    129. According to Chris Christie, he would seek to purge Obama-era civil service hires

    130. Said, “If and when the Vatican is attacked by ISIS … the pope would have only wished and prayed that Donald Trump would have been president”

    131. Repeated a supporter who called Ted Cruz a pussy

    132. Said, “I think Islam hates us”

    133. Praised conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, telling him, “I will not let you down”

    134. Tried to entice Ohio Gov. John Kasich to be his vice presidential candidate by saying he’d let him control domestic and foreign policy

    135. Kept journalists in restrictive “press pens” on the campaign trail

    136. Said he “can relate” to victims of racism because “even against me the system is rigged.”

    137. Said he doesn’t “have the time” to read books

    138. Proposed to charge American allies for military defense

    139. Suggested that Gold Star mother and Muslim Ghazala Khan remained silent because she “wasn’t allowed to have anything to say”

    140. Said Mitt Romney would have “dropped to his knees” for an endorsement

    141. Referred to 9/11 as 7-Eleven

    142. Joked about Second Amendment advocates shooting his opponent or her judicial appointees

    143. Proposed a 45 percent tariff on Chinese exports

    144. Praised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s brutal response to an attempted coup, giving “great credit to him for turning it around”

    145. Likened the killing of a 21-year-old woman by a drunk-driving undocumented immigrant to ritualistic child sacrifice

    146. Falsely claimed he “100 percent” owns “the largest winery on the East Coast”

    147. Claimed he saw nonexistent footage of money airlifted from the U.S. to Iran

    148. Said Khizr Khan “has no right to claim I have never read the Constitution”

    149. Claimed that the U.S. is being “ripped off” by its fellow members of NATO

    150. Employed a butler who said President Obama should be “hung for treason”

    151. Called sexual harassment allegations against Roger Ailes “totally unfounded”

    152. Picked convention speakers who called for his general-election opponent to be imprisoned

    153. Questioned Hillary Clinton’s religion

    154. Launched at least 15 business ventures that went on to fail

    155. Said Gold Star father Khizr Khan attacked him for being tough on terrorism

    156. Falsely accused Clinton of rigging the general election debate schedule

    157. Called Obama and Clinton the founders of ISIS

    158. Said women who are sexually harassed at work should “find another career”

    159. His wife, Melania, plagiarized her convention speech from Michelle Obama, then campaign operatives lied about it

    160. Praised an adviser who called for Clinton to be executed

    161. Questioned Ben Carson’s Seventh-day Adventism

    162. Sued a former campaign aide for $10 million for breaching a confidentiality agreement

    163. Characterized the theme of his administration as “America First”

    164. Appeared not to know about Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea

    165. Questioned Ted Cruz’s evangelical faith

    166. Entrusted his health to a doctor who described his test results as “astonishingly excellent”

    167. Proposed to deport his opponent, an American citizen

    168. Asked advisers if he could get out of picking Mike Pence as his vice presidential candidate after he’d offered Pence the job

    169. Proposed to try U.S. citizens in Guantanamo Bay military tribunals

    170. Urged supporters to patrol polling places to combat “election fraud”

    171. Hired the editor of white-nationalist website Breitbart as his campaign chief

    172. Said he’s “starting to agree” that his opponent should be imprisoned

    173. Responded to a murder with: “Just what I have been saying. African-Americans will VOTE TRUMP!”

    174. Doesn’t allow contributors to cancel recurring donations on his website

    175. Ejected a baby from a rally

    176. Called on Russia to hack Hillary Clinton’s emails

    177. Told black voters, “You’re living in poverty; your schools are no good; you have no jobs”

    178. Falsely claimed San Bernardino neighbors saw “bombs all over the floor” but failed to act due to political correctness

    179. Falsely claimed Chicago police brass told him crime could be ended if they were allowed to be “much tougher”

    180. Boasted of “employee childcare programs” that are really for hotel guests

    181. Ran a modeling agency that hired models working illegally in the U.S.

    182. Repeatedly called a deaf actress “retarded” and sexually harassed her on the set of The Apprentice

    183. Said he wanted to hit Democratic National Convention speakers who criticized him

    184. Suggested a reporter who accused him of sexual assault wasn’t attractive enough to assault

    185. Would consider recognizing Crimea as Russian territory and lifting sanctions on Russia

    186. Named the person who made up “death panels” to his economic team

    187. Falsely claimed his opponent wants to admit 620,000 Syrian refugees

    188. Told two 14-year-old girls, “Wow! Just think—in a couple of years, I’ll be dating you.”

    189. Threatened to pull the U.S. out of the World Trade Organization

    190. Falsely claimed his opponent’s plan would provide Social Security benefits to illegal immigrants

    191. Posted a tweet urging voters to “check out [a critic’s] sex tape,” then denied it during a debate

    192. Screwed over the USA Freedom Kids, a group of preteen girls who performed at Trump events

    193. Falsely claimed his opponent was “seen laughing on two occasions” at a 12-year-old rape victim

    194. Employed campaign operatives who scrubbed language supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression from the GOP platform

    195. Called his opponent “unhinged” and “unbalanced”

    196. Falsely claimed the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency endorsed him

    197. Falsely claimed the U.S. economy is experiencing its slowest growth since 1929

    198. Threatened to fund a super PAC campaign against his defeated GOP primary rivals if they run again

    199. Hired a former Christie staffer implicated in the George Washington Bridge lane closure scandal

    200. Confused Clinton’s running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia, with Tom Kean, Republican governor of New Jersey in the 1980s

    201. Falsely claimed he won “every poll” after the second presidential debate

    202. Falsely claimed the Iran nuclear deal made Iran rich

    203. Falsely claimed Bill Clinton “had to pay an $850,000 fine” to Paula Jones after she accused him of sexual assault

    204. Said, “When you’re a star, [women] let you do it. You can do anything. … Grab them by the pussy.”

    205. Said veterans who suffer from PTSD aren’t “strong” and “can’t handle it”

    206. Said not paying income taxes “makes me smart”

    207. Continuted to insist the Central Park Five are guilty of murder, despite DNA evidence exonerating them

    208. Referred to a Hispanic Miss Universe as “Miss Housekeeping” and “Miss Piggy”

    209. Said “we’re going to have to see” about whether he would accept a victory for his opponent as legitimate

    210. Repeatedly sexually assaulted women

    211. Promised to jail his opponent if elected

    212. Illegally raised funds through his foundation without the proper license

    213. Mocked his opponent stumbling leaving a 9/11 memorial event after she was diagnosed with pneumonia

    214. Claimed government officials are letting illegal immigrants “pour into the country so they can go and vote”

    215. Repeatedly walked in on pageant contestants, including teenagers, while they were changing

    216. Accepted $150,000 in 9/11 recovery funds to “repair” a building that wasn’t damaged in the attacks

    217. Spent $258,000 from his charitable foundation to settle lawsuits related to his businesses

    218. Illegally contributed $25,000 to the PAC of a prosecutor who was considering legal action against Trump University

    219. Said of a 10-year-old girl, “I am going to be dating her in 10 years. Can you believe it?”

    220. Spent $20,000 in contributions to the Trump Foundation on a 6-foot-tall painting of himself

    221. Called poor people “morons”

    222. Suggested his opponent cheated on her husband

    223. Claimed the Commission on Presidential Debates “rigged” the debates

    224. Vowed that Iranians who provoke U.S. sailors with “gestures” will be “shot out of the water”

    225. Brought on alleged serial sexual harasser Roger Ailes as a campaign adviser

    226. Said his opponent “could actually be crazy”

    227. Took credit for giving away other people’s money

    228. Claimed nearly $1 billion in business losses in a single year

    229. Repeatedly cited false unemployment statistics

    230. Claimed he “lost hundreds of friends” on 9/11

    231. Repeatedly called a deaf actress “retarded” and sexually harassed her on the set of The Apprentice

    232. Told two 14-year-old girls, “Wow! Just think—in a couple of years, I’ll be dating you.”

    233. Suggested a reporter who accused him of sexual assault wasn’t attractive enough to assault

    234. Falsely claimed Bill Clinton “had to pay an $850,000 fine” to Paula Jones after she accused him of sexual assault

    235. Falsely claimed he won “every poll” after the second presidential debate

    236. Falsely claimed the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency endorsed him

    237. Falsely claimed the Iran nuclear deal made Iran rich

    238. Falsely claimed the U.S. economy is experiencing its slowest growth since 1929

    239. Posted a tweet urging voters to “check out [a critic’s] sex tape,” then denied it during a debate

    Yep.

    Definitely a case of “Both Sides Do It !”

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  7. Tony W says:

    From Reddit this morning….

    Clinton emails. Trump admitting sexual assault. Clinton emails. Trump charity fraud. Clinton emails. Trump calls for nuclear proliferation. Clinton emails. Trump calls for national stop and frisk. Clinton emails. Trump violates trade embargo with Cuba. Clinton emails. Trump sued over Trump U fraud. Clinton emails. Trump bribes DA. Clinton emails. Trump doesnt pay taxes for 20 years. Clinton emails. Trump employs campaign manager involved in illegal corruption with Russia. Clinton emails. Trump calls for ban of an entire religion from entering US. Clinton emails. Trump lied about support for Iraq War over and over in debate. Clinton emails. Trump in court for rape of a minor. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of Russia’s Crimea occupation. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of situation in Syria. Clinton emails. Trump penalized for racist housing discrimination. Clinton emails. Trump files for bankrupcy 6 times. Clinton emails. Trump goes 0-3 in debates by showing scant knowledge of world politics. Clinton emails. Trump slams people for being POWs. Clinton emails. Trump calls mexicans rapists. Clinton emails. Trump questions judge’s integrity because of parent’s heritage. Clinton emails. Trump deletes emails involved in casino scandal. Clinton emails. Trump commits insurance fraud after florida hurricane. Clinton emails. Trump has dozens of assault victims and witnesses come forward with allegations of abuse. Clinton emails. Trump attacks former Ms America for being overweight. Clinton emails. Trump tweets about sex tapes at 3am. Clinton emails. Trump calls for US citizens to be sent to Gitmo. Clinton emails. Trump calls for more extreme forms of torture to be used. Clinton emails. Trump asks why cant we use our nukes if we have them. Clinton emails. Trump calls for offensive bombing attack on sovereign nations because someone gave the middle finger. Clinton emails. Trump calls to kill women and children of suspected terrorists. Clinton emails. Trump says women should be punished for having abortions. Clinton emails. Trump makes fun of disabled people. Clinton emails. Trump calls for end of freedom of the press. Clinton emails. Trump calls global warming a chinese hoax. Clinton emails. Trump praises Putin and Kim Jong Un’s strong leadership. Clinton emails. Trump openly admits to not paying his employees during debate. Clinton emails. Trump calls Obama an illegitimate noncitizen hundreds of times over 7 years. Clinton emails. Trump uses campaign donations to enrich his own businesses. Clinton emails. Trump says Ted Cruz involved in JFK assassination unironically citing National Enquirer. Clinton emails. Trump says laziness is an inherent trait in black people. Clinton emails.

    TL/DR – Both sides do it.

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  8. CSK says:

    @Liberal Capitalist:

    240. Sues people who have the same name as he does for using the name Trump in their businesses, even if they’ve been in business longer than he has.

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  9. al-Ameda says:

    Well, one thing is obvious from this, the so-called “Liberal Mainstream Media” is most certainly NOT biased to Hillary’s favor.

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  10. Monala says:

    @Liberal Capitalist: On the Daily Show, they did a discussion with undecided African-American millennials. The millennials were asked what they disliked about Clinton, and then about Trump, and the correspondent took notes. There were about 6 or 8 things for Clinton, and 3 pages’ worth for Trump. The correspondent looked at the two lists side by side and asked in disbelief, “And y’all still can’t make up your mind?”

    The correspondent (who was black) then concluded to Trevor Noah, “I know what the problem is. They’re spoiled. They’re used to having Obama on the ballot. They don’t realize that having to choose between two white folks they dislike is the way it almost always is.”

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  11. Hal_10000 says:

    @CSK:

    If Clinton is worried, and she probably shouldn’t be, all her campaign has to do is point out that President Trump would be our very first chief exec to go on trial for racketeering on November 28 and child rape on December 16 immediately following the election.

    No, he won’t. Trump is garbage. Please don’t make him sympathetic by spreading lies about his legal issues.

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  12. Hal_10000 says:

    @Liberal Capitalist:

    If you think that’s the extent of Clinton’s ethical and legal woes, I have a bridge to sell you. Trump is way worse, but the idea that Clinton’s troubles are purely the product of a right wing conspiracy or add up to poor management of a server is simple worship of the powerful.

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  13. DrDaveT says:

    @Liberal Capitalist:

    Hillary Clinton (D)

    1. Poor email server management

    Except, of course, if you talk to an actual Hillary-hater, that’s not the list. They would add

    2. Benghazi!
    3. Whitewater
    4. Vince Foster
    5. Retaliation against Bill’s women
    6. Clinton Foundation influence peddling
    7. Called me ‘deplorable’
    8. Iran nuclear deal
    9. Said bad things about Bernie in private
    10. In bed with financial sector
    11. Lied about the emails, repeatedly and inconsistently
    12. Annoying whiny voice
    13. Never says what she’s really thinking
    14. Insider trading

    Some of those are real things; some of them are echo-chamber nonsense. But they’re all out there, and a big part of the “plague on both their houses” attitude. Especially for people who think half the things on the Trump list are positives.

    [Edit: I see Hal beat me to the punch there.]

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  14. Davebo says:

    @Hal_10000:

    Well enlighten us then.

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  15. Davebo says:

    @DrDaveT:

    I’d be curious to know which ones you believe are real.

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  16. Mikey says:

    @Hal_10000:

    Trump is way worse, but the idea that Clinton’s troubles are purely the product of a right wing conspiracy or add up to poor management of a server is simple worship of the powerful.

    She’s no more blameless than any politician, but certainly no less than most. Two decades of specious investigations (almost all of which have revealed trivialities, if they revealed anything at all) have certainly made a difference in people’s perceptions of her, though. One doesn’t have to believe in some grand right-wing conspiracy to understand that. I mean, it’s easily seen in how many people believe she’s less ethical than Trump, despite the fact many more actual ethical lapses attach to him.

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  17. michael reynolds says:

    @CSK:

    Nope. Trump can pardon himself. He can also, by the way, pardon anyone who commits aggression, say his supporters in the KKK or the American Nazi Party. The law won’t be able to touch him.

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  18. CSK says:

    @michael reynolds:

    If he pardons himself, he’s admitting guilt. That’s the nature of of a pardon.

    A bit OT, but I objected to the pardon given the Scottsboro Boys. They didn’t need one; they weren’t guilty. They deserved a public exoneration.

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  19. CSK says:

    @Hal_10000:

    The point is, he’s facing suits in both cases. The only people to whom this would make him sympathetic are those to whom he already is a sympathetic figure.

    And, as you say, the man is garbage. It’s hard to damage or defame garbage (as the Supreme Court noted in the case of Lenny Paradiso).

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  20. Joe says:

    Conservatives worship the wisdom of the market. All the market cares about – and all it’s supposed to care about – is the market. What happened when the Comey letter was announced bringing Trump a step closer to the White House? The market cringed reflexively. Hello? Conservatives?

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  21. michael reynolds says:

    @CSK:

    Dude, you’re thinking conventionally, not like Trump. So what if pardoning himself looks like an admission of guilt? He doesn’t care, and his followers would love him all the more if he were a rapist.

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  22. Electroman says:

    @michael reynolds: Trump can indeed pardon himself should he become President, but Presidential pardons only affect the Feds. Contract disputes and child rape are state offenses. Aggression by armed thugs is also actionable at the state level.

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  23. DrDaveT says:

    @Davebo:

    I’d be curious to know which ones you believe are real.

    It’s a spectrum. Some (like #11) are true and negative. Some (like #13) are true of any sensible politician. Some (like #7) are true if you’re a racist/misogynist Trump supporter. I think #9 and #12 are certainly true, but I don’t care about them.

    Then there’s the set where something really happened, and Hillary probably didn’t acquit herself entirely honorably, but it’s not clear exactly how bad what she did (or didn’t do) really was. That includes Whitewater, Benghazi, and pretty much all of the other faux scandals the GOP and the echo chamber been hammering on for as long as anyone can remember.

    Then there’s the positives that are seen as negatives, like the Iran deal.

    That’s why this is such a quagmire — it’s a jumble of lies, half-truths, truths that don’t mean what people think, truths that shouldn’t matter, unknowns, innuendo, mischaracterizations… and a few genuine negative truths. Most people are completely unequipped to make rational decisions on the basis of that kind of ‘information’.

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  24. michael reynolds says:

    @Electroman:

    Oh, I did not know that pardon was limited to federal crimes. Thanks.

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  25. gVOR08 says:

    @Mikey:

    I mean, it’s easily seen in how many people believe she’s less ethical than Trump, despite the fact many more actual ethical lapses attach to him.

    I can see how people who marinate in the CEC bubble could believe that Hillary is ethically equivalent to Trump. But how can any sentient being say, as I’ve heard so often, “I’m voting for Trump because Hillary lies.”

    @barbintheboonies:

    How in the Hell did it get like this.

    There was a synergy between the Republican Southern Strategy and the growth of right wing media that created an alternate reality Bizarro world that about 40% of the country believe. That’s how the hell it got like this.

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  26. gVOR08 says:

    @michael reynolds: In comments a few days ago someone asked if you could grant a blanket pardon, rather than for specific charges. Ford did. He granted a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.

    I noticed the wording would have allowed state prosecutions. Wouldn’t have happened. But I sometimes contemplate the salubrious effect one photo of Richard Nixon behind bars in a numbered blue shirt would have had on political ethics.

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  27. I noticed the wording would have allowed state prosecutions.

    That’s because the President lacks the authority to pardon someone of the violation of the laws of the states.

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  28. gVOR08 says:

    @Doug Mataconis: Of course.

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