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Latino Voters Overwhelmingly Favor Clinton Over Trump

Latino Vote T-Shirts

A new Fox News Latino poll shows Donald Trump getting absolutely trounced by Hillary Clinton among America’s fastest growing minority group:

With less than four months to go before Election Day, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 46-point lead over her Republican rival Donald Trump among Hispanic voters, according to an exclusive poll released Thursday by Fox News Latino.

The poll found that 66 percent of registered Latinos would head to the ballot box to vote for Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, compared to only 20 percent who would pick the ticket of Trump and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence.

The gap between the two candidates widened 7 percent since May, when Clinton held a 39-point edge among Hispanics.

“The results are not that surprising given the reaction of Latinos to some of Trump’s proposals,” Alfonso Aguilar, the executive director of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, told Fox News Latino.

The poll, which was conducted over the phone from August 7-10, surveyed 803 Latino registered voters and has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted under the direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).

When Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and his running mate Bill Weld were added to the mix, 16 percent of Latinos said they would vote for the third party ticket — just 1 percent less than those who would vote for Trump and Pence. Clinton still easily secured 59 percent of the Hispanic vote when Johnson was factored in.

“I don’t think Johnson will make much of a difference in these elections,” Joe Trippi, a political strategist and frequent Fox News Channel contributor, told FNL. “He could syphon off Hispanics that don’t want to vote for either Clinton or Trump, but not enough to make a difference either way.”

The poll also found that Clinton outperformed Trump in a number of issues that are relevant to Latino voters. Hispanics are an important source of support for the Democrat, given that Latinos are among the fastest growing electorate in the country, and the expectation is that their numbers will grow only bigger in future decades

(…)

Hispanics overwhelmingly believe that the former secretary of state represents their views better than Trump (72 percent to 14 percent). They also trust her more than Trump when it comes to making decisions on education (73 to 19 percent), foreign policy (70 to 21 percent), health care (69 to 22 percent) and the economy (61 to 31 percent), among other issues.

On immigration, which has been one of the main points of contention between Trump and the Latino community, Hispanic voters believe that Clinton is better suited to take on the task of improving the country’s immigration system by a whopping 52-point spread (71 to 19 percent).

(…)

Analysts on both sides of the political divide, however, warned that it is important to focus on the Hispanic vote beyond just the national level. With Latinos making up a high percentage in certain key battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Nevada and even Arizona, to name a few – the group could play an even more decisive role in determining who will be the next president.

“We have to see at a state level what these numbers look like, especially in key battleground states,” Aguilar said. “Those numbers might be more telling.”

None of this should be surprising, of course. Previous polling has shown that Latino voters have an overwhelmingly negative opinion of Donald Trump and that the majority of the group was starting to line up behind Hillary Clinton in order to prevent him from becoming President of the United States. Earlier this year, for example, we learned that Latino’s who had previously delayed the process of becoming American citizens were applying for citizenship in near-record numbers so that they could have the right to vote against Trump in the fall.  Trump, meanwhile, has done seemingly everything possible to turn away this growing group of voters from the day his campaign started.

Trump began his campaign with insults directed at Mexican-Americans, a pledge to implement mass deportation of anyone not in the United States legally, pledges that he would use whatever means necessary to prevent American companies from moving manufacturing to nations such as Mexico and Central America (even though he has no legal authority to do so), he has attacked a U.S. District Court Judge and accused him of being biased against Trump University because of his Mexican heritage, and a promise to build a wall at the the U.S.-Mexican border, it isn’t surprising that Latino voters would react negatively to Trump as the Republican nominee. Indeed, this negative reaction is something we’ve been aware of for the better part of the past years. Almost immediately after he entered the race, for example, Trump’s statements about Latinos caused him to suffer losses to his business empire, including the end of a business relationship with Univision to broadcast the Miss Universe pageant, the decision by several top retailers to discontinue stocking Trump-branded clothing and other items, and even the decision of a Latino restaurateur in Washington, D.C. to break a contract with Trump to build a relationship to a open a restaurant in a new hotel in the nation’s capital. It’s resulted in negative comments from current and former members of the Mexican Government, and has generally been universally condemned by people of note in the Latino-American community ranging from politicians to entertainers. Given all of this, it’s hardly surprising that Latino voters are turning against Trump in record numbers.

If the 20% support that Trump has from Latinos in this poll holds up, it will be the worst that any Republican has done among this group in the past forty-six years according to exit polls. For example, the Reagan/Bush ticket received 37% of the Latino vote in the 1980 election, and 34% in the 1984 election. In the 1988 election, George H.W. Bush received 30% of the Latino vote in 1988, and 25% in the 1992 Presidential election. Four years later in 1996, Bob Dole garnered 21% of the Latino vote even in a loss to Bill Clinton. In 2000, George W. Bush managed to reverse the decline in Republican share of the Latino vote that started with his father’s re-election bid, grabbing 35% of the Latino vote in one of the closest elections in American history. Four years later, Bush garnered the highest percentage of the Latino vote ever received by a Republican since exit polls began measuring such things, picking up 44% of the Latino vote in his victory over John Kerry. In 2008, John McCain managed to grab 31% of the Latino vote, less than George W. Bush, but at least comparable to what Republicans were receiving in the Reagan years. Four years ago, though, Mitt Romney saw his share of the Latino vote slip to 27% no doubt largely due to the highly negative rhetoric regarding immigration that had plagued the race for the Republican nomination that year. Now, if this poll is any indication, Trump is likely to get a lower share of the Latino vote than any Republican since 1976, when Gerald Ford received 18% of the Latino vote at a time when that demographic group represented about 1% of the total electorate rather than the 8-10%, or more depending on which state you’re in, of the electorate that it represents today.

All of this spells trouble for Trump in particular and Republicans in general in a whole host of states. In addition to it’s Cuban-American population, for example, Florida is also home to a Puerto Rican population that seems especially turned off by Trump, including those Puerto Ricans who have moved to the Continental United States to escape the economic chaos of their homeland. Thanks to the fact they are already citizens, they will be able to vote in November, and do so in one of the most important Electoral College states on the map. In addition to Florida, Latino voters are also likely to have a real impact on the outcome of the vote in states ranging from Nevada and Arizona to Virginia and North Carolina, where they have become an increasingly important part of the electorate. And all of this is happening at precisely the time that Republicans have nominated the most anti-Latino nominee possible, Theoretically, it would be possible for Trump to still win the election even with the negative numbers he has among Latinos (and African-Americans), but that would require him to get a record share of the white vote for Republicans, something that the polls currently indicate is unlikely to happen. As always anything can happen between now and Election Day, but with these kind of numbers coming out of America’s fastest growing minority group it’s not looking good for the ‘Trump Train’ at all.

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. CSK says:

    At this point, it seems as if almost everybody favors Clinton over Trump.

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  2. @CSK:

    October Headline “Trump Family Overwhelmingly Favors Clinton Over Trump”

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  3. CSK says:

    @Doug Mataconis:

    That’s probably true already. If it’s correct that Ivanka, Donald Jr., and Eric have been trying to muzzle their father since last spring, they must be suicidal now.

    I had heard that Ivanka had a meltdown when dear old Dad pulled that Cinco de Mayo stunt with the taco salad on Twitter..

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  4. Liberal Capitalist says:

    @CSK:

    At this point, it seems as if almost everybody favors Clinton over Trump.

    … and THIS is one of the best examples of AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM !!!!

    Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else

    (no, not Churchill, but if the shoe fits… :)

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  5. MarkedMan says:

    The Atlantic has an interesting article about Trump turbocharging the republican’s a Southern a Strategy. Something I didn’t know was that Paul Manafort, Trump’s campaign manager, in addition to spending the last two decades lobbying for some of the most repulsive thugs in the world, was once an architect of that strategy. Here’s an interesting gem:

    And it was Manafort who arranged for Ronald Reagan to kick off his post-convention presidential campaign at the Neshoba County Fair just outside of Philadelphia, Mississippi, where three young civil rights workers were brutally murdered in 1964.

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  6. James Pearce says:

    There are more Hispanics in the US than there are people in Spain. You have to be incredibly stupid to think you’re going to run a blatantly anti-“Mexican” campaign and find electoral success.

    Not only will the country’s 55 million Hispanics not support you, but millions of their friends won’t either.

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  7. Andrew says:

    @James Pearce:

    Trump: IOIYAR and IDGAF. 2016!

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  8. MarkedMan says:

    African Americans and Hispanics make up almost a third of the US population. When the Republican’s decided on the Southern Strategy it was (tactically if not morally) a legitimate equation: deeply antagonize about 10% of the population (African Americans), knowing that more than half that 10% were bound up in States that would neutralize their voting potential. And moderately antagonize 5% of the population (Hispanics). In exchange, they could whip up fervor amongst the vast majority of the population. Bush Jr. saw where this was heading given the steady increase in Hispanic and dispersement of AA’s and, given that Republican’s seem to be wedded to campaigning against some “other” that is “destroying our culture”, switched over to the much safer anti-gay campaign, which comprises 3-5%.

    But now we have anti-gay as unpopular, and AA/Hispanic population at 30%. Unfortunately for them the Repubs have built their entire political success over the past 50 years as pitting majority against minority for votes, and catering to the wealthy for funding.

    Perhaps Trump/Manafort is trying to fix this problem by going after Muslims, which are a very small percentage of the population and therefore much more useful as a scapegoat. But the Repub base has such a high percentage of anti AA/Hispanic bigots that they can’t get away from it. And The Donald himself seems to be a bigot on top of that. Something is going to give way, but I don’t see what. What would cause a reasonable young person to see themselves as allied with such a party?

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  9. Gromitt Gunn says:

    @MarkedMan: What would cause a reasonable young person to see themselves as allied with such a party?

    Tribalism, and being part of the state-level power structure in places like Texas and Alabama. That’s all they have left.

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  10. Barry says:

    @MarkedMan: “Perhaps Trump/Manafort is trying to fix this problem by going after Muslims, which are a very small percentage of the population and therefore much more useful as a scapegoat. ”

    In addition, Jewish people, black people, latinos and asian-Americans know what that means. I doubt more than 10% of the above groups are so stupid as to not look at that and thing ‘we’re next’.

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  11. Tony W says:

    @CSK:

    At this point, it seems as if almost everybody favors Clinton over Trump.

    No, just everybody he has not insulted at one point or another.

    Never mind, you’re right.

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  12. Gustopher says:

    He does quite well with those who starch their white sheets to keep the points crisp though…

    I’m not saying he *is* a racist, just that he does very well with those who *are* racists.

    Also, he’s a racist.

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  13. grumpy realist says:

    I think Fred Hiatt has nailed it:

    The true trademark of the insufferable bore is the conviction that he is doing you a great favor by spending time with you. Trump brings this to his campaign every day — his conviction that he is doing the entire country a great favor, that serving as president would represent an enormous sacrifice. “I could be having a very nice life right now.”

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  14. Mikey says:

    @MarkedMan: Speaking of Manafort…

    Secret Ledger in Ukraine Lists Cash for Donald Trump’s Campaign Chief

    Handwritten ledgers show $12.7 million in undisclosed cash payments designated for Mr. Manafort from Mr. Yanukovych’s pro-Russian political party from 2007 to 2012, according to Ukraine’s newly formed National Anti-Corruption Bureau. Investigators assert that the disbursements were part of an illegal off-the-books system whose recipients also included election officials.

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  15. SKI says:

    @Barry:

    In addition, Jewish people, black people, latinos and asian-Americans know what that means. I doubt more than 10% of the above groups are so stupid as to not look at that and thing ‘we’re next’.

    Add in Mormons to the list…

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  16. Argon says:

    “Latino Voters Overwhelmingly Favor Clinton Over Trump”

    I saw that published in the journal, “Duh: Science of the Bloody Obvious”

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  17. Gromitt Gunn says:

    @SKI: And LGBTs.

    If Trump is accomplishing anything here, he is probably going to end up becoming to Muslim-Americans what Westboro Baptist Church became to LGBTs. i.e. “Well, I don’t really understand those people, but I sure as hell do not want people to associate me that group of d-bags!”

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