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Americans Really, Really, Really Don’t Like Donald Trump

Donald Trump Shrug

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll shows that Americans view of Donald Trump is turning even more negative than it has been in the past (emphasis mine):

In the latest sign Americans are dreading their general election options — and particularly one of them — negative views of Donald Trump have surged to their highest level of the 2016 campaign, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Trump’s unfavorable rating, in fact, far surpasses Hillary Clinton’s even as the presumptive Democratic nominee receives her worst ratings in more two decades in public life.

The poll finds 70 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of Trump, including a 56 percent majority who feel this way “strongly.” Negative ratings of Trump are up 10 percentage points from last month to their highest point since he announced his candidacy last summer, nearly reaching the level seen before his campaign began (71 percent). The survey was conducted Wednesday through Sunday among a random national sample of U.S. adults, coming after last week’s primary contests, but with the large majority of interviews completed before Sunday’s massacre at an Orlando club.

Clinton is also seen negatively, with 43 percent reporting favorable impressions and 55 percent unfavorable. Attitudes have not significantly changed since last month, but negative views of the former secretary of state have technically ticked up to their highest level in all Post-ABC polls since 1992, when Clinton had yet to become first lady.

Unfavorable ratings toward both Clinton and Trump are higher than for any major-party presidential nominee in Post-ABC surveys from 1984 onward.

(…)

But Trump’s recent slide has reopened an advantage for Clinton, whose 55 percent unfavorable mark is now 15 points below Trump’s. Among registered voters, Trump’s unfavorable mark exceeds Clinton’s by 13 points (69 percent vs. 56 percent), a break from a Post-ABC poll last month finding both candidates’ standings even at 57 percent unfavorable among this group.

Negative views of Trump have risen among a wide range of groups, jumping by double digits among liberals and conservatives and among both Republican women and Democratic men. But his standing has also worsened among two key voting groups: independents and white Americans who do not have a four-year college degree.

Trump’s net favorable rating (favorable minus unfavorable) among non-college whites has flipped from a plus-14 in May to slightly negative minus-7 in the latest survey. Among independents, Trump’s net rating has shifted from from -19 last month to -38 in the latest survey, returning him to roughly the same standing as in April (-37).

Both groups widely dislike Clinton, setting up a hold-your-nose choice for many in November. Clinton’s net favorable rating of -47 among non-college whites continues to be much worse than Trump’s, while her -29 net rating among independents is slightly better.

It’s been the case since the beginning of this campaign that Trump is viewed negatively by most Americans, of course, and that was largely due to the reputation that Trump had developed long before he entered politics. Additionally, while his numbers did improve among Republicans as a whole improved as the race for that party’s nomination went on, with many Republicans seemingly becoming more positive about him as it became more apparent that he would win the nomination, the larger public has maintained its consistency in both overwhelmingly disliking him and in viewing him far more negatively than they view Secretary Clinton. What’s different now, if these numbers are accurate, is that Trump’s negative numbers have skyrocketed to such a degree that it’s impossible to see him having any realistic chance of winning the General Election if numbers like this continue through November. Additionally, favorable numbers this low are far more likely to have an impact on down ballot races, which could have a real impact on the GOP’s ability to maintain control of the Senate and could even cause Republicans to lose seats in the House of Representatives, although it still seems unlikely that control of the House is in jeopardy at this point.

Digging further in the poll, we find that one group in particular has very negative opinions about the presumptive Republican nominee:

Trump continues to be deeply unpopular with Hispanics, with 89 percent saying they have an unfavorable view of him, his highest mark in Post-ABC polling this campaign. Three-quarters of Hispanics see Trump in a “strongly unfavorable” light (76 percent), similar to 78 percent last month. Clinton has a largely positive image among this increasingly Democratic group – 64 percent favorable vs. 34 percent unfavorable.

Given that this spike in anti-Trump sentiment among Hispanics comes at the same time that Trump was ranting about a “Mexican” Judge issuing unfair rulings against him in the Trump University case, this is hardly surprising. Electorally, though, it poses even more problems for Trump in that it places several important states in doubt for Republicans in the fall, including Florida, Colorado, Virginia, and even Arizona, all of which have strong and growing Hispanic populations. If this disdain for Trump translates into increased voter turnout among that voting bloc then it will be next to impossible for Trump to get anywhere close to the 270 Electoral Votes he needs to win the nomination, something that was already in doubt to begin with.

It is fair to point out, as Ed Morrissey does, that the poll shows that both candidates are seeing their favorable numbers dip, but it’s hard to avoid the fact that Clinton is clearly likely to benefit from the fact that her numbers are dipping to far less of a degree than Trump’s and not nearly to as low a point as Trump’s are fleeing. Additionally, Clinton maintains a high degree of support among many important demographic groups, including women, African-Americans, Hispanics, and other voting blocs, while Trump continues to see himself being viewed more and more unfavorably across the board:

[L]ook at Trump’s numbers among various voter groups. Trump is viewed unfavorably by 73 percent of moderates; 77 percent of women; 89 percent of Hispanics; 88 percent of nonwhites; 75 percent of voters under 40; 59 percent of whites; 71 percent of white college graduates, 67 percent of white women, and even 52 percent of white men and 53 percent of non-college whites.

Needless to say, those numbers would appear to complicate Trump’s hopes of riding a wave of white backlash into the White House. In fact, according to the crosstabs, among the only groups who view Trump favorably are non-college white men, by 52-46. As noted above, he’s underwater with white women and white men writ large, and even with non-college whites when both genders are taken into account. That’s because he’s also viewed unfavorably by 60 percent of white women without a college degree.

Trump is underwater among many constituencies that should be a natural part of his coalition (whites overall, white women of both the college and non-college variety, blue collar whites). But Clinton actually does comparatively well among some of her key constituencies. She’s viewed favorably among women by 51-47, among Hispanics by 64-34, and among nonwhites by 66-32. While she is viewed unfavorably by 59 percent of white college grads, which is bad, Trump fares worse, at 71 percent. And while Trump is in a deep hole among moderates, Clinton is tied among them at 49-49.

Overall, as Post polling guru Scott Clement puts it: “Trump’s unfavorable rating, in fact, far surpasses Hillary Clinton’s even as the presumptive Democratic nominee receives her worst ratings in more than two decades in public life.”

These new numbers, which will likely be followed by a new round of “horse race” numbers from the same poll in the next day or two, come at the same time as a new poll from Bloomberg showing Clinton leading Trump 49% to 37%, a twelve point advantage that is higher than anything we’ve seen in head-to-head polling between the two for months. The same poll shows Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson at 9%, suggesting that the negative favorable numbers for both candidates are causing voters to take a far more serious look at third-party alternatives than they have in the past and that there is at least room for Johnson to continue growing to the point where he gets to the 15% threshold needed to get an invitation to the Presidential debate. According to RealClearPolitics, this puts Clinton’s polling average at 40.7% to 36.5% for Trump and 8.5% for Johnson, thus giving Clinton a 4.2 point average lead. In a head-to-head match-up without Johnson, Clinton is averaging 44.1% to 38.6% for Trump, resulting in a 5.5 point lead for Clinton. As I said the other day, it’s still early and the usual caveats about early polling apply, but as things stand Donald Trump seems destined to drive the GOP to an electoral disaster in November unless there’s some kind of radical change in the manner in which the public perceives him.

I hate to say I told you so Republicans, but I did tell you so.

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. CSK says:

    The Trumpkins will dismiss this poll as hopelessly biased and inaccurate, since it was conducted by the “enemedia.”

    I don’t give Trump credit for having any degree of self-awareness, but even he must realize deep down that he’s sufficiently unpopular to lose in a November landslide. That is why I think he might very well bail a short time after his coronation in Cleveland.

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  2. HarvardLaw92 says:

    If those numbers hold, they don’t just foretell a loss of the presidency. Those are drag your party down with you as you crash & burn level figures.

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  3. michael reynolds says:

    I think Hillary’s number has room to grow more positive; not sure about Trump. Are we seeing public opinion gel around Trump? I always get nervous when data begins to confirm my hopes. (Hope is such a miserable state of existence.) But man, it sure looks and feels like a collective shudder at the prospect of Trump, a physical rejection of the man. He may be a bad oyster in the collective gullet.

    If we get more horse race numbers like the Bloomberg poll, and especially if we start seeing big margins in Pennsylvania, Ohio or Florida, the GOP is really going to have to find a way to distance themselves from this racist, misogynist creep they’ve chosen. If margins stay steady until the convention (I know, another ‘if’) there may be a last, desperate attempt to rid themselves of Trump. Because you do not want to be defending as many sketchy Senate seats as the GOP has to defend, with a candidate despised by a supermajority of Americans.

    If this perception of Trump gels Hillary will be able to survive just about anything. Because the public don’t like her, but they don’t fear her, either, while Trump scares them.

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  4. Jen says:

    @CSK: Agree. One has to assume that Clinton’s people are thinking that through too–it’s entirely possible she’ll be running against someone else by mid-August.

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  5. steve s says:

    If those numbers hold, they don’t just foretell a loss of the presidency. Those are drag your party down with you as you crash & burn level figures.

    If I were Hillary or her media people, the name “Donald Trump” would be Spin Welded to “and the Republicans” for the next x number of months til he drops out in the fall and fusterclucks them up the yin-yang.

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  6. al-Alameda says:

    @steve s:

    If I were Hillary or her media people, the name “Donald Trump” would be Spin Welded to “and the Republicans” for the next x number of months til he drops out in the fall and fusterclucks them up the yin-yang.

    That’s exactly the ‘branding’ that Hillary needs to do.

    Hillary has a ‘negatives’ problem herself, so she’s very fortunate to have Trump as her presumptive opposition. Trump is busy defining himself and in so doing running his negatives way up. She should get out of the way and let the man race to the gutter.

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  7. CSK says:

    @Jen:

    Sure. I think it’s reasonable to speculate that he’ll suddenly develop some vaguely-defined ailment that will prevent him from campaigning but won’t preclude living a normal life.

    His head honcho, Manafort, said something very revealing a week or so ago: That Trump would pick a v.p. who’d do the things Trump didn’t want to do as president. Such as? Does this sound like someone who’s serious?

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  8. Pch101 says:

    I remain convinced that women will ultimately ensure that Trump doesn’t win. He will be inheriting the 2012 map and alienate just enough of the female vote so that he has little to no chance of changing that map. The Hispanic vote will also help to keep Nevada, Colorado and possibly Florida in the blue column; even under the best of circumstances, it’s hard to see how Trump could possibly flip enough of 2012’s close races (almost all of which went to the Dems) so that the GOP gets to 270.

    That being said, I would not put too much weight on any poll that shows the libertarians pulling close to double digits. For all of the negative sentiment about Trump, I would not presume that the popular vote will be a blowout in Clinton’s favor, either.

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  9. Jen says:

    @CSK: I had not seen that statement by Manafort.

    So, thus far, Trump’s qualifications/requirements for a VP are:

    – A politician, someone who knows the system;
    and
    – Someone who will do “the things Trump doesn’t want to do”

    This sounds an awful lot like an exit strategy to me. The trick is going to be convincing someone to be on the ticket with him, because most Republicans are running away from him, quickly. It’s probably the most exercise some of them have had in years.

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  10. CSK says:

    @Jen:

    Well, the ideal running mate to ensure a catastrophic loss for Trump would be Sarah Palin. But I don’t think he actually wants to run and lose–I think he wants the nomination. Period.

    Anyone who runs with him will have to do so in the full knowledge that his or her career in politics will be destroyed, particularly if Trump bails. Who’s willing to make that sacrifice? Only someone who has no prospects anyway.

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  11. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @Pch101:

    For all of the negative sentiment about Trump, I would not presume that the popular vote will be a blowout in Clinton’s favor, either.

    Agreed. I think we’re looking at something in the neighborhood of a 4% to 6% margin in the popular vote. I do, however, expect that she’ll blowout the electoral vote margin.

    What will be interesting is seeing whether opposition to Trump drives Democratic / Not Republican turnout in sufficient numbers to have a material effect on the down ballot races. At this point I feel pretty certain that we’ll retain the White House, but I’m more unsure about whether we’ll retake the Senate as well.

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  12. Pete S says:

    @CSK: I actually thought he might bail as soon as one poll showed him in the lead – that would allow him to say, see I would win if I really had the time, but I am finding it too hard to stay away from my business interests.

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  13. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @steve s:

    Bingo :-)

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  14. stonetools says:

    Trump is busy defining himself and in so doing running his negatives way up. She should get out of the way and let the man race to the gutter.

    IOW, Hillary should follow LBJ’s strategy, according to Theodore White:

    Never were Republicans denounced as such; the opposition was involved in its own civil war, and the President obeyed Napoleon’s maxim: Never interfere with the enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself.

    My own feeling is the Democrats should do everything possible to keep Trump in the race to end.Certainly, they shouldn’t be urging the Republicans to drop Trump or force Trump out at the convention. I’ve seen liberals saying this. That’s the exact opposite of liberals’ self interest, even if it might be good for the country. No, they should let the Republicans go down with Trump in November. That might be cold realpolitik, but think of the greater good and the long term.

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  15. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @Pete S:

    In a rational universe, I’d like to think that (assuming he’s even serious about being a Republican to begin with, about which I still have my doubts) such a person would recognize the impending disaster and start trying to find a way to gracefully extricate himself from it in order to preserve the party.

    But we’re talking about Donald Trump. Lob a few pokes across the bow of his ginormous ego – something in the neighborhood of “Donald doesn’t have what it takes” or “Donald is afraid of losing” and he’ll burrow himself into riding that train all the way into the ocean. I fully expect that the Dems will adopt that sort of taunting / challenge to his ego approach as a central part of their strategy. Trump is many things, but the thing at the top of the list is predictable. Tweak his nose and he’ll take the bait – every … single … time …

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  16. Scott says:

    It is nice to see the Democrats on the offense. Usually they are fighting from a defensive crouch. If Clinton, Obama, Warren and others can keep pounding Trump day in and day out, I think opinions will solidify. Especially since it seems that the only counter-punching is being done by Trump alone. He has no allies at the current time. It is going to be lonely for him for a while

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  17. Rafer Janders says:

    @CSK:

    Anyone who runs with him will have to do so in the full knowledge that his or her career in politics will be destroyed, particularly if Trump bails. Who’s willing to make that sacrifice? Only someone who has no prospects anyway.

    So it will be Christie.

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  18. steve s says:

    at its peak, the Nazi Party was only 8 million out of 80 million Germans.

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  19. Jen says:

    @HarvardLaw92:

    find a way to gracefully extricate himself from it in order to preserve the party.

    IMHO, if he bails, it wouldn’t be to preserve the party, it’d be to preserve himself–an electoral blowout would, I think, have a negative sales impact on his overvalued “brand.” Your point about egging him on with “afraid to lose” comments will be what keeps him in the race if that’s where we end up.

    @stonetools: Agree that it’s better for Dems if Trump stays in the race. I think that if he made a smart VP choice and then dropped out citing health/business/family concerns, the Republicans could end up winning. The donor class would be so relieved the money raised overnight would be astounding, and the move would dominate headlines for days. Given Clinton’s unfavorables, it could end up being a real race for her, and depending on the timing, could be hard to overcome.

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  20. barbintheboonies says:

    The media is finally starting to Dump Trump maybe they’re getting a bit scared. The redneck base are the ones to convince now, but in the wake of this last tragedy it will be a hard sell. They are itching for a showdown. I live in redneck country and to even say your a liberal you set yourself up for trouble. If the Republicans can convince right wing talk shows to get serious and tell the truth as to what is at stake if Trump wins we will be a lot better off. Trump must know he is not presidential material, and this is not a game. I am frightened.

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  21. cian says:
  22. gVOR08 says:

    Trump had me very worried about the general. His appeal is limited to the GOP base, but everything he’s said is a lie, so it’s easy for him to switch to different lies to appeal to a broader audience. But so far he’s failed to show any inclination, or perhaps ability, to do so.

    How can anyone not see that he’s lying? It sometimes strikes me that conservatives lack even the most basic BS detectors. It seems limited to – if it makes me feel good, it must be true.

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  23. grumpy realist says:

    @barbintheboonies: It’s the Samson mentality. I don’t mind if I die in the rubble just as long as I pull down the house on my enemies. I think a lot of the support for Trump comes from people who a) are lying to themselves as to what Trump will produce, b) don’t care, just as long as they can destroy “those elites.”

    (Anyone who looks at Trump’s prior history and imagines that he will even try to keep his promises has to be living in LaLa land. Trump will throw you off the bus as soon as it’s convenient for him.)

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  24. Scott F. says:

    @al-Alameda:

    The thing is, I don’t know that Trump damages the Republican brand anymore than they have already damaged it through their own actions. Republicans are fed up with their Republican representatives to a degree (still relatively minor) I haven’t seen before.

    The inexcreable Darrell Issa is actually in a race this year in my district (Sorry on behalf of the decent people in my district). That’s not only the Trump effect, but his own failure to damage Obama while wasting tons of money trying to do so.

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  25. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @Scott:

    Agreed. I have been waiting for the party to wake the hell up and for this to happen for years now. It’s well past overdue …

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  26. Hal_10000 says:

    Donald Trump is what happens when you mistake your base for the electorate. Everything he is saying and doing is right out of the crazy talk radio playbook — Obama’s a loser, everything’s horrible, immigrants are bad. And yeah, that will get you a loyal audience and ratings. But it’s still only a minority of the public. In the end, the electorate is mostly comprised of people who only pay attention to politics occasionally and want someone who’s probably a bit right of center but not too much and isn’t totally unreasonable about it. If the public begins to perceive that Clinton is that person, this could be a landslide, whether they like her or not. People didn’t like Nixon but he still won big.

    I was reading an article yesterday about how a lot of the fundamentals would favor a challenger — fatigue with the party in charge, a so-so economy, an incumbent who is popular but not wildly so. Decades from now, historians will marvel at how the GOP had a chance to get control of all three branches and promptly shoved their face in a fan.

    But … as I like to say … five months left. If the economy tanks or some major scandal explodes, all bets are off. Ultimately, I don’t think this will end up in a landslide. But the fact that we’re even contemplating that possibility in a indictment of the GOP’s leadership. They HAD this.

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  27. grumpy realist says:

    Much speculation over at Balloon Juice that this is all part of a Secret Plan….

    At some point the Irish bookies will establish a line on the probability that Trump’s entire acceptance speech in Cleveland is “The Aristocrats…”

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  28. Pch101 says:

    @HarvardLaw92:

    I think we’re looking at something in the neighborhood of a 4% to 6% margin in the popular vote.

    I would say that’s a bit optimistic.

    I also wouldn’t assume that this is a definitive or fatal moment for the Republicans. Let’s all remember the Democratic glee over the GOP’s failed shutdown that ultimately didn’t hurt the Republicans at all.

    It’s also worth remembering that the GOP performed an “autopsy” of its last presidential defeat, which also changed nothing. All of the major wings of the party remain as intransigent now as they were before, and the party can’t reinvent itself without purging major blocs from its ranks and losing the House as a result, so it isn’t going to happen.

    The only thing that will come out of this is that future GOP presidential candidates will be less overtly misogynistic. The Republicans can (mostly) afford to alienate blacks and Hispanics, but a candidate who behaves in ways that offend even conservative women crosses the line.

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  29. Kylopod says:

    Basically, this race is shaping up to be Harry Reid vs. Sharron Angle at the national level.

    The striking thing is how delusional Democrats were to ever think the race would have been a walk in the park against a non-Trump candidate. Over the last two years the complacency I’ve encountered among my fellow Dems has been astounding. Relying on flawed arguments from the whole “blue wall” nonsense to plain incomprehension that other people in the country don’t necessarily see things the way they do, they’ve convinced themselves they can’t possibly lose a presidential election.

    Hillary appears to be doing well at the moment against a candidate with no campaign organization, virtually no support from his own party, and who behaves like a barking madman. Care to wager how she’d be doing against a more conventional GOP candidate?

    Pundits like to compare Trump to Goldwater, but that gets it all wrong. Put aside for the moment that Goldwater was a sitting US senator, not a vulgar, bombastic reality show host. The real problem with the analogy is that Goldwater was facing a popular incumbent president who was all but a shoo-in for reelection no matter which Republican had run against him. Goldwater’s nomination may have helped turn a solid win into a landslide (or perhaps a modest landslide into a historic one). It did not turn a loss into a win.

    A presidential election in which an unpopular candidate wins in a landslide simply because the opponent is a loon has never actually happened before. Maybe this year will be the first. But that isn’t something worth counting on–or a good reason to pat yourself on the back at the strength of your own party.

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  30. michael reynolds says:

    @cian:

    God knows. I suspect that weighed against Romney’s vote in 2012, 5% or so of the GOP (including alleged independents who are actually Republicans) will support Johnson, another 5% won’t vote, and the remaining 90% will pull the lever for Trump. But 90% of Romney’s vote is not what you’d call a winning majority.

    @Hal_10000:

    I disagree with those who say the GOP had this. I think we had this. If we’d had a strong candidate we’d have beaten Cruz or Rubio.

    My frustration with Sanders voters and the campus wing of Democrats, comes in large part because I thought the GOP was weak and out of touch with reality. I think we had from the start (and have, now) an opportunity to do more than win; I think we are in a position to destroy the Republican Party as a national party. I thought we could take them on and beat them soundly in a clash of ideas. Not that we have great ideas, but their ideas are all stupid.

    If this perception of Trump has now gelled, we have a chance to take back the Senate and even, perhaps, the House. The GOP will not get the Trump stink off themselves any time soon, and a say, 39% popular vote, would force some portion of the GOP to grow a spine and form a new party.

    But as I said above: I hate hope.

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  31. CSK says:

    @Pete S:

    I think he got addicted to winning the primaries, and couldn’t stop even if he wanted to.

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  32. slimslowslider says:

    And yet the commenters over at The American Conservative are as confident as ever. The bubble is an amazing thing. I figure the Breitbarters think he is going to run the table if the TAC commenters are this smug.

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  33. Pete S says:

    @CSK: I think so too. But now he is in for 5 months without the quick fix of a primary win no matter what he does. That should let his attention wander again.

    @HarvardLaw92: Everything you say here is correct, and I think the only way he stays in is if the Democrats keep taunting him. But even now I still don’t think he wants to be president, he wants to say he could have been president and would have been better than whoever is the president. This is where the lack of self awareness hurts him, I doubt he really understands how much damage he has done to his “brand”. The flunkies he surrounds himself with certainly aren’t going to convince him.

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  34. C. Clavin says:

    @Kylopod:

    Care to wager how she’d be doing against a more conventional GOP candidate?

    Conventional? Like Ted Cruz? Bobby Jindal? Rick Perry? I don’t remember anyone conventional being anywhere near the Republican clown car.
    Re: Polling…the Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton currently up 325 to 213 in electoral votes…the only poll that counts.

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  35. Mikey says:

    @CSK:

    The Trumpkins will dismiss this poll as hopelessly biased and inaccurate, since it was conducted by the “enemedia.”

    Where’s that “Unskewed Polls” guy when they need him?

    Bahahahahahahaha….

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  36. steve says:

    It’s interesting how much Americans really, really, really don’t like Donald Trump … they don’t like him so much he just beat out 16 other candidates for the nomination. Yep, they really, really, really don’t like Donald Trump.
    Oh, this is from a Washington Post / ABC News poll. Got it. No way it could be biased.

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  37. grumpy realist says:

    @slimslowslider: Here’s an article about Trump and why a lot of women don’t like him.

    Not surprising, a lot of comfortable, white, middle-class Republican women are still supporting Trump. Supporting “the Republican candidate” is more important than anything. Let’s just say that they’re probably going to discover the hard way placing your trust in someone who isn’t trustworthy is not that great an idea.

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  38. michael reynolds says:

    @grumpy realist:

    Women are not always great judges of character, a reality to which I owe my marriage.

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  39. Rafer Janders says:

    @Hal_10000:

    In the end, the electorate is mostly comprised of people who only pay attention to politics occasionally and want someone who’s probably a bit right of center but not too much and isn’t totally unreasonable about it.

    The fact that the Republicans have lost the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections effectively belies the claim that the electorate wants someone “who’s probably a bit right of center.”

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  40. stonetools says:

    Heh, while everyone here is reminding each other not to be overconfident and talking about eking out a three point win, over at LGM they’re talking wave election, regaining the House as well as the Senate and a 58-42 popular vote landslide.
    I’m going down the middle- big popular vote win in the 7-8 percent range and comfortable Senate Majority but not the House. Frankly, I don’t care how big the popular vote win is-the Dems have got to take the Senate. If they don’t, we’ll a dysfunctional SCOTUS for years. We can’t have that.

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  41. C. Clavin says:

    @C. Clavin:

    the Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton currently up 325 to 213 in electoral vote

    The road map to 270 EV for Trump looks next to impossible.
    Not to be cocky…but for Republicans this is nothing but a humiliating defeat waiting to happen in 5 months.
    I used to worry that Reynolds was right about a terror event making Trump a shoe-in. But his reaction to and handling of the Orlando incident makes it clear he is unable to respond to a crisis in a manner than will convince voters. Kinda like McCain and the Bush economic crisis.

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  42. grumpy realist says:

    And of course, Mr. “I really really want to be Trump’s VP, pretty pretty pleeeeze?” is bringing up the idea of recreating HUAC, this time with a different target….

    Sometimes I think we Americans are too dumb to live. Other times I’m convinced of it.

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  43. grumpy realist says:

    @steve: So in your opinion, who is putting forth unbiased polls?

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  44. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @Pete S:

    And I fully agree. Everything you are saying is accurate and rational.

    I’m just speaking from years of doing business with the guy – tweak his ego and he’s not capable of being rational about it. He’s not even close to it. He is physically and temperamentally incapable of ignoring anything he sees as an injury to his ego. What is arguably his greatest strength is also his greatest weakness.

    The rhetoric I’m already seeing from various Clinton surrogates is molded entirely in that vein, and I expect that it will get both stronger and more blatant as we get closer to November.

    They’re going to goad him into doing something his better judgment should tell him is a disaster – on multiple levels no less – that’s just waiting to happen. He’ll plunge ahead into the abyss anyway, because that’s just who he is.

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  45. An Interested Party says:

    It’s interesting how much Americans really, really, really don’t like Donald Trump … they don’t like him so much he just beat out 16 other candidates for the nomination.

    Oh sweetie, just because a plurality of Republican voters like this conman doesn’t mean that anyone else does…but do go on believing that it’s all just a media conspiracy…at least you’ll have a reason for why Trump gets clobbered in the general election…

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  46. C. Clavin says:

    @C. Clavin:
    This outfit has Clinton 358 – Trump 180 in the Electoral Vote.
    http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/06/the-electoral-college-map-61316.html

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  47. steve s says:

    The fact that the Republicans have lost the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections effectively belies the claim that the electorate wants someone “who’s probably a bit right of center.”

    Shit, some of them are so stupid that they think the guys who couldn’t even win the nomination would have won the general.

    But if they were smart, they wouldn’t be republicans. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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  48. Kylopod says:

    @C. Clavin:

    Conventional? Like Ted Cruz? Bobby Jindal? Rick Perry? I don’t remember anyone conventional being anywhere near the Republican clown car.

    Let’s see… Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, John Kasich.

    Of course I don’t like any of those people or their policies, nor do I expect any of them would make a good president. But they are all more or less “conventional Republicans,” and they all would have been formidable against Hillary Clinton. Anyone who doesn’t realize that is living in a dream world.

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  49. DrDaveT says:

    @Pch101:

    I also wouldn’t assume that this is a definitive or fatal moment for the Republicans.

    I think you underestimate the importance of the fact that the people who provide the money and the people who provide the votes no longer agree on anything except that they think Hillary Clinton is icky. That’s a fatal illness, curable only through major surgery and chemo.

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  50. Neil Hudelson says:

    @steve:

    Oh, this is from a Washington Post / ABC News poll. Got it. No way it could be biased.

    ABC/WaPo’s: Polling Average for 2012: Obama 50, Romney 47

    Actual results: Obama 51, Romney 47.

    Care to defend your statement and illuminate us on ABC/WaPo’s biases?

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  51. al-Alameda says:

    @Scott F.:

    The thing is, I don’t know that Trump damages the Republican brand anymore than they have already damaged it through their own actions. Republicans are fed up with their Republican representatives to a degree (still relatively minor) I haven’t seen before.

    On that (above) I agree. I was thinking more in terms of Trump’s personal brand, and I think he cares more about Trump as a brand, than he does about the Republican Party as a brand. After all, the very fact and reality of his campaign and candidacy had not much to do with the current Republican Party brand. The Republican Party was basically a most convenient vehicle for Trump to hijack – this is a high profile crime of opportunity.

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  52. Steve V says:

    So instead of tacking to the center, Trump’s going full-on Pam Geller. I guess he still has time. Yikes.

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  53. michael reynolds says:

    @C. Clavin:

    I used to worry that Reynolds was right about a terror event making Trump a shoe-in. But his reaction to and handling of the Orlando incident makes it clear he is unable to respond to a crisis in a manner than will convince voters.

    It’s a beautiful thing. May it be validated by many more polls.

    As much as I always thought Trump was a stupid psychopath, I misunderestimated just how stupid he is. He knew he should attack, but he immediately dialed it up to 11, and there was just too much off about this event. Trump freaked out and tried to shove a square peg into a round hole, with the result that he has probably inoculated voters against future such outbursts.

    You want to see something interesting? Look at Drudge, Trump’s cheerleader: Orlando is basically off his landing page. And if you listen closely you can hear the crashing silence of Republican leaders. Then try to imagine that you’re a billionaire donor being asked to give this clown your money.

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  54. michael reynolds says:

    @C. Clavin:

    I doubt we get Arizona, but as astounding as it is to consider, with some help from Gary Johnson we may actually take Utah. Utah!

    Which is fine, I’ll take 353.

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  55. Mister Bluster says:

    @michael reynolds:.. (Hope is such a miserable state of existence.)

    George Carlin: The public sucks, fvck hope.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMw5676blwk

    Mr. Bluster: As long as Hope is the waitress at Denny’s!

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  56. C. Clavin says:

    @Kylopod:
    OK…maybe Kasich.
    Rubio and Walker have serious issues that would hamper them in the general.
    And Bush has that name…and he couldn’t disavow his brothers colossal blunder.

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  57. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @michael reynolds:

    Did you happen to catch their Lt Governor’s speech at a vigil for Orlando held in SLC?

    Given that it’s Utah, and we’re talking about someone I’ve always considered to be a deeply conservative Mormon, I was absolutely floored. Impressed and touched, to say the least, but absolutely floored as well.

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  58. michael reynolds says:

    @HarvardLaw92:

    Brought tears to my eyes, man. Thanks for the link.

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  59. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @michael reynolds:

    Mine as well. I was crying in my office as I was viewing it. It sort of gives you hope for the world, you know?

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  60. Jen says:

    @steve:

    ABC News/Washington Post polling gets an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight for accuracy:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

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  61. michael reynolds says:

    @HarvardLaw92:

    Fwcking hope. Never a good thing. Best to sit and stew in our worldy-wise cynicism.

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  62. Mikey says:

    @michael reynolds: Watching Lt. Gov. Cox’s speech knocked my worldly-wise cynicism out for at least the next week. If a “youngish, balding, middle-aged, straight, white, male, Republican politician” can speak what he spoke, directly from his heart, there must be hope.

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  63. C. Clavin says:

    Trump gets more unhinged today in Atlanta…

    “It’s amazing that our country can continue to survive, but you know? Eventually it’s not going to survive. Just so you understand. Eventually it’s not…Our country is an amazing country. It’s amazing that our country could be abused so badly and not surv—,” Trump said, trailing off before shouting, “It’s just amazing!” “And continue to survive,” he continued. “But it’s not going to continue to survive like this. It can’t. It’s impossible.”
    “If Hillary gets in, you will have a Supreme Court that will destroy our country as we know it, just remember that. It will destroy. We will have Venezuela,” Trump said. “You see what’s happening in Venezuela? We’re getting fairly close to that anyway. But we will have Venezuela,” “We will have something you won’t even recognize.”

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  64. michael reynolds says:

    New poll has Hillary up by 9 in Wisconsin. And that’s among “likelies.”

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  65. James Pearce says:

    @Mikey: @michael reynolds: @HarvardLaw92: My first thought was “Oh, you guys….”

    But that was pretty inspirational.

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  66. Tony W says:

    @steve:

    Oh, this is from a Washington Post / ABC News poll. Got it. No way it could be biased.

    Feel free to go find your own unskewed poll…..maybe Fox News or Rasmussen?

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  67. grumpy realist says:

    @Tony W: And then people scratch their heads and can’t understand why Asians don’t vote for Republicans…..

    I think a lot of it has to do with higher education and the large number that are in STEM fields. You lie to yourself about physics or chemistry or mechanical engineering, you’re lucky if you don’t end up irradiated/blown up/poisoned/crushed. Math is king, and deservedly so.

    So we really, really don’t like people who lie to themselves about the data. If you don’t have the gumption to look at reality and accept it as it really is, you have no business anywhere near government. That’s how the USSR finally collapsed–all those wonderfully optimistic and surreal numbers about production and how the economy was working. No wonder the whole thing was a house of cards.

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  68. grumpy realist says:

    @Tony W: And then people scratch their heads and can’t understand why Asians don’t vote for Republicans…..

    I think a lot of it has to do with higher education and the large number that are in STEM fields. You lie to yourself about physics or chemistry or mechanical engineering, you’re lucky if you don’t end up irradiated/blown up/poisoned/crushed. Math is king, and deservedly so.

    So we really, really don’t like people who lie to themselves about the data. If you don’t have the gumption to look at reality and accept it as it really is, you have no business anywhere near government. That’s how the USSR finally collapsed–all those wonderfully optimistic and surreal numbers about production and how the economy was working. No wonder the whole thing was a house of cards.

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  69. steve s says:

    I doubt ‘asians are better at math’ is the explanation. I think that being white can make you oblivious to how obviously racist the GOP is. Other minority groups see it real clear-like.

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  70. steve s says:

    Although it can’t help. Before the GOP went all hardcore creationist and global-warming-denying and basic-economic-reality-denying, scientists were a mix of dems and repubs. Then they went All Stupid All the Time, and now scientists are 90% Democrats.

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  71. Hal_10000 says:

    @Rafer Janders:

    The fact that the Republicans have lost the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections effectively belies the claim that the electorate wants someone “who’s probably a bit right of center.”

    I would classify Clinton I as definitely right of center. And in most countries, Obama would be too.

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  72. anjin-san says:

    @Hal_10000:

    I would classify Clinton I as definitely right of center.

    That’s a bit of an over-simplification. A lot of her positions are absolutely antithetical to the right.

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  73. anjin-san says:

    @steve:

    Totally skewed, just like 2012. Say hi to President Romney when you see him.

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  74. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @anjin-san: Only because they come from Hillary Clinton, not because of where they lie on the spectrum of Ideas. Obama Care is a center-right solution Republicans painted as a radical left plan. The political choices offered by todays major party politicians are wing-nut right and center right–hence the rise in butt hurt by the Campus Left.

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